2025 ICB: dryland winter crops in dryland Southern Cape (Caledon)
WINTER CROPS  //  2025 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Caledon region)
Area Southern Cape: Caledon
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 3.40 3.40 2.10 2.60 1.75
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2025 R/ton 6 327 6 327 7 637 6 327 5 440
Total deductions R/ton 1 090 1 119 29 924 194
– Transport differential R/ton 800 800 800 94
– Grade differential R/ton 168 286
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 123 33 29 124 100
Price premiums / Canola back-payment R/ton 74 764
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 237 5 387 8 371 5 403 5 246
Gross income R/ha R17 806 R18 316 R17 580 R14 049 R9 180

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 51 53 50 40
Fertilizer R/ha 3 319 3 355 3 242 2 748 1 269
Lime R/ha 262 262 262 220 220
Seed R/ha 825 779 1 685 1 185 1 177
Fuel R/ha 763 784 754 742 676
Herbicide R/ha 1 682 1 369 1 054 810 883
Insecticide R/ha 258 186 625 136 165
Fungicides R/ha 699 1 172 685 508 575
Marketing costs R/ha 123 112 22
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 891 865 891 789 489
Casual labour R/ha 18 24 22 15 7
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 190 196 184 155 155
Total variable expenditure R/ha R9 081 R9 156 R9 477 R7 347 R5 614
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 671 R2 693 R4 513 R2 826 R3 208
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R8 725 R9 160 R8 103 R6 702 R3 566
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 566 R2 694 R3 858 R2 578 R2 038
Break-even yield T/ha 1.73 1.70 1.13 1.36 1.07
Break-even price R/ton R2 671 R2 693 R4 513 R2 826 R3 208
Source: Overberg Agri, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2025.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Caledon region)
Graph showing gross margin comparison for Southern Cape (Caledon region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Overberg, Caledon

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.70 2.95 3.20 3.40 3.70 3.95 4.20
R4 237 2 359 3 418 4 477 5 325 6 596 7 655 8 715
R4 487 3 034 4 156 5 277 6 175 7 521 8 643 9 765
R4 737 3 709 4 893 6 077 7 025 8 446 9 630 10 815
R4 987 4 384 5 631 6 877 7 875 9 371 10 618 11 865
R5 237 5 059 6 368 7 677 8 725 10 296 11 605 12 915
R5 487 5 734 7 106 8 477 9 575 11 221 12 593 13 965
R5 737 6 409 7 843 9 277 10 425 12 146 13 580 15 015
R5 987 7 084 8 581 10 077 11 275 13 071 14 568 16 065
R6 237 7 759 9 318 10 877 12 125 13 996 15 555 17 115
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.70 2.95 3.20 3.40 3.70 3.95 4.20
R4 387 2 689 3 786 4 883 5 760 7 076 8 173 9 270
R4 637 3 364 4 524 5 683 6 610 8 001 9 161 10 320
R4 887 4 039 5 261 6 483 7 460 8 926 10 148 11 370
R5 137 4 714 5 999 7 283 8 310 9 851 11 136 12 420
R5 387 5 389 6 736 8 083 9 160 10 776 12 123 13 470
R5 637 6 064 7 474 8 883 10 010 11 701 13 111 14 520
R5 887 6 739 8 211 9 683 10 860 12 626 14 098 15 570
R6 137 7 414 8 949 10 483 11 710 13 551 15 086 16 620
R6 387 8 089 9 686 11 283 12 560 14 476 16 073 17 670
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.35 1.60 1.85 2.10 2.35 2.60 2.85
R7 371 474 2 317 4 160 6 003 7 845 9 688 11 531
R7 621 812 2 717 4 622 6 528 8 433 10 338 12 244
R7 871 1 149 3 117 5 085 7 053 9 020 10 988 12 956
R8 121 1 487 3 517 5 547 7 578 9 608 11 638 13 669
R8 371 1 824 3 917 6 010 8 103 10 195 12 288 14 381
R8 621 2 162 4 317 6 472 8 628 10 783 12 938 15 094
R8 871 2 499 4 717 6 935 9 153 11 370 13 588 15 806
R9 121 2 837 5 117 7 397 9 678 11 958 14 238 16 519
R9 371 3 174 5 517 7 860 10 203 12 545 14 888 17 231
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R7 621 R7 871 R8 121 R8 371 R8 621 R8 871 R9 121
1.10 -9 818 -9 543 -9 268 -8 993 -8 718 -8 443 -8 168
1.35 -7 913 -7 576 -7 238 -6 901 -6 563 -6 226 -5 888
1.60 -6 008 -5 608 -5 208 -4 808 -4 408 -4 008 -3 608
1.85 -4 102 -3 640 -3 177 -2 715 -2 252 -1 790 -1 327
2.10 -2 197 -1 672 -1 147 -622 -97 428 953
2.35 -292 296 883 1 471 2 058 2 646 3 233
2.60 1 613 2 263 2 913 3 563 4 213 4 863 5 513
2.85 3 519 4 231 4 944 5 656 6 369 7 081 7 794
3.10 5 424 6 199 6 974 7 749 8 524 9 299 10 074

Notes

  • Please refer to Methodology, Approach and Definitions for in-depth interpretation of enterprise budgets.
  • The canola back-payment assumes 10% of contracted price.
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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