Projected protein requirements for animal consumption in South Africa
MARCH 2021 PROJECT FOR THE PROTEIN RESEARCH FOUNDATION (PRF)
Index
Introduction
The Protein Research Foundation (PRF) has as its main objective the replacement of imported protein with domestically produced protein. After many years of investigating numerous alternatives, the focus changed mainly to where the largest impact could be made namely soybeans and canola.
The growth in the domestic availability of oilcake is a good measure by which the PRF could ascertain if it was achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. The targets that will need to be met in the future for the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made thus requires projections of future oilcake demands and what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, as well as when this goal is likely to be met.
To accurately measure this progress various models were developed and used over the years. A new model has been developed.
The model considers changes in per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs as projected by BFAP as well as population growth, the quantity of meat, milk and eggs that are predicted to be imported and exported are also considered. Projected future prices of major raw materials are incorporated as well as the availability of raw materials, mainly those that are derived as by-products from various agricultural processing industries.
The genetic improvement of animals has a substantial impact on productivity, therefore changes in animal performance is an important factor that the model incorporates. The model calculates the quantity of feed required as well as raw material breakdown for these feeds.
There are several animals that are not producers of meat, milk and eggs that consume a substantial amount of animal feed including protein. The feed consumption of these animals including the protein materials also need to be accounted for.
The model has the ability by making use of least cost linear programming considering transport costs of raw materials across various regions of the country to formulate the actual feed required by all animals in South Africa given the constraints of which quantity of raw materials will be domestically available. The result is an accurate prediction of protein requirements and projection of protein requirements both domestically and imported.
The APR model in collaboration with BFAP data is used to calculate these projections.
Results
Current scenario
Based on the current per capita consumption of animal products it is estimated (using the APR Model) that the requirement for animal feed in South Africa is as follows:
Table 1: National animal feed production 2020 Feed types National feed consumption (ton) Aquaculture 5 000 Broiler 3 320 366 Cattle beef 2 894 960 Cattle dairy 2 568 226 Horses 124 205 Layer 1 326 955 Ostriches 83 823 Pets 359 304 Pigs 1 036 398 Sheep 254 145 Various 10 Grand total 11 973 392 In terms of oilcake the largest consumed oilcake is still soya oilcake followed by sunflower oilcake.
Table 2: Oilcake usage for 2020 Oilcake type National consumption (ton) Cotton full fat 20 483 Soya full fat 240 000 Canola oilcake 55 000 Soya oilcake 1 213 700 Sunflower oilcake 351 480 Palm kernel meal 5 000 Total 1 885 663 On the local market, South Africa progressed in terms of substituting imported soya oilcake with local oilcake. Currently South Africa produced 70% of the total requirement in 2020, in 2009 this was only at a 16% level. The projection for 2023 is at 97% and will increase to 100% in 2029. However, the substitution is highly dependent on efficient infrastructure and logistics support, providing internal raw materials to coastal areas at competitive levels. The usage of the oilcake is also very sensitive in terms of prices and competition of raw materials containing protein. For instance, an increase in Lucern production or wet milling by-products directly affects the usage of oilcakes.
Table 3: Historical usages of soya oilcake (Local and imported soybeans processed in South Africa) Year Local soya oilcake (ton) Total soya oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 121 140 598 070 20 2002 141 520 616 593 23 2003 120 000 705 352 17 2004 119 280 616 596 19 2005 92 080 740 558 12 2006 210 000 849 678 25 2007 303 280 1 115 280 27 2008 253 200 1 261 791 20 2009 181 600 1 111 172 16 2010 251 840 1 083 640 23 2011 301 600 1 291 069 23 2012 347 760 1 271 341 27 2013 469 360 1 197 978 39 2014 565 280 1 232 687 46 2015 765 287 1 254 120 61 2016 768 800 1 218 001 63 2017 836 285 1 267 098 66 2018 766 795 1 150 521 66 2019 820 000 1 218 000 67 2020 849 700 1 213 700 70 In terms of total oilcake, the local share in consumption increases from 34% in 2009 to 79% in 2020. It is projected that the local share will increase to 98% in 2023 and 99,7% in 2029.
Table 4: Historical usages of Total oilcake (Local and imported oilcake) Year Local oilcake (ton) Total oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 454 192 1 021 862 44 2002 482 448 1 149 224 42 2003 472 312 1 210 396 39 2004 489 413 1 121 460 44 2005 416 736 1 212 593 34 2006 572 231 1 414 338 40 2007 608 370 1 635 525 37 2008 494 557 1 758 185 28 2009 565 181 1 664 927 34 2010 701 030 1 743 137 49 2011 624 912 1 857 391 34 2012 766 927 1 856 360 41 2013 760 321 1 877 671 40 2014 913 356 1 889 979 48 2015 1 197 604 1 914 330 63 2016 1 238 120 1 965 291 63 2017 1 300 865 1 798 372 72 2018 1 441 527 1 649 498 87 2019 1 434 660 1 875 738 76 2020 1 485 183 1 885 663 79 Growth in requirements for animal products
In order to calculate the consumption figures of the different species it is very important to determine the demand. The demand was calculated by means of using the following macro variables in combination with animal feed conversion ratios growth figures:
- Population growth
- Per Capita consumption growth
- Imported animal products
- Exported animal products
Table 5: Projections of feed and oilcake requirements to the year 2022 and 2028 Feed (ton) Oilcake (ton) Soya oilcake (ton) 2020 11 973 392 1 885 663 1 213 700 2023 12 973 505 1 935 209 1 218 087 2029 14 544 283 2 253 814 1 427 406 As explained earlier soya oilcake remains the dominant protein source in South Africa, this dominance has increased over time and will continue to do so. The future consumption figures are highly influenced by the Feed Conversion Ratios, with the constant increase in FCR it stabilises the future consumption. However, exports of beef, sheep and the prospect of chicken export increases the consumption of feed and have a large impact on the end consumption figures for 2029.
Local soya oilcake production
The increase in local oilcake production from locally produced soybeans will make South Africa increasingly self-sufficient in protein requirements.
Table 6: Local vs imported soya oilcake Local soya oilcake Local soybean Total soya oilcake Local soya % Local (From local soybeans) ton Production (required) ton Requirements ton Production (required) ton self-sufficiency 2020 849 700 1 062 125 1 213 700 1 517 125 70 2023 1 187 436 1 484 295 1 218 087 1 522 608 97 2029 1 427 406 1 784 257 1 427 406 1 784 257 100 Total oilcake requirements in South Africa are estimated at 1 885 663 tons in 2020 versus a local production of 1 485 183 tons locally produced or 79% of requirements (Table 4). The soybean requirement of 1 517 125 tons is excluding the full fat soybeans and for human consumption. This production is needed in order to obtain 1 213 700 tons of oilcake.
Soya oilcake produced in South Africa in 2020 provided 79% of the countries soya oilcake requirements (Table 6). It is forecasted to increase to 100% in 2029. Logistics is still creating challenges to be competitive against imports and must be kept in consideration to reach these levels. In order to satisfy local demand 1 784 257 tons of soybeans is needed.
According to the model feed requirements will increase to 14 544 284 tons in 2029 and 12 973 505 tons in 2022. Soya oilcake requirement will be 1 218 087 tons by the year 2023 and 1 427 406 by 2029 (Table 6).
Figure 1: Growth in self-sufficiency in terms of soya oilcake 
Broiler and Layer diets is playing an enormous role within the industry. Growth and sustainability in the poultry industry will play a major role in oilcake requirements within the future and it is good news to see that this is part of the recent masterplan submitted towards government. The second important role-player is the Beef and Sheep industry, in order to sustain growth and consumption of feed it is important that bio security be managed efficiently within South Africa. Except for normal population growth figures the largest contributor toward animal feed consumption increases are the exports of animal products such as mutton, beef and chicken.
Figure 2: Specie feed consumption 2020 
Table 7: National animal feed production 2023 and 2029 Feed type 2020 2023 2029 National feed consumption (ton) Beef and sheep 3 149 104 3 507 445 3 975 199 Broilers 3 320 366 3 575 615 4 093 900 Dairy 2 568 226 2 661 446 2 855 846 Layers 1 326 955 1 427 903 1 490 083 Other 572 342 623 116 676 969 Pigs 1 036 398 1 177 981 1 452 286 Grand total 11 973 392 12 973 505 14 544 284 Table 8: Oilcake usage projection 2023 and 2029 Raw material 2020 2023 2029 National consumption Canola oilcake 55 000 76 190 93 483 Cotton full fat 20 483 20 483 26 000 Palm kernel meal 5 000 5 701 6 000 Soya full fat 240 000 240 000 290 000 Soya oilcake 1 213 700 1 218 087 1 427 406 Sunflower oilcake 351 480 374 748 410 925 Grand total 1 885 663 1 935 209 2 253 814
Conclusion
The prospects of feed for animal protein are looking promising in the future. However, it is highly depended on a few factors. With increasing efficiencies regarding Feed Conversion Ratios it is important to find additional demand. This additional demand is predominantly situated in exports of animal products. Currently this is the focus within the different masterplans submitted towards government and will play an important role in sustainability.
Another factor that is very important is the prices and competition of raw material, in order to utilise these local consumption levels the raw material prices tend to be closer to export parity levels. Which means that a lot of work will be needed to increase the feasibility of producing the raw material at these levels. Given the production of raw materials the question prevails if there will be opportunities in the future for exports. Some of the commodities can be exported but there can even be opportunities to export processed product.
The protein raw material basket is very complex and any slight change in one raw material have effects on the utilisation of oilcake, specifically soya oilcake. If there is an increase in production or an import of a protein source it will have a direct impact on the consumption of soya oilcake.
Lastly logistics and biosecurity will play a very important role in the future, if inland products cannot be delivered price competitive at coastal consumers, imports will continue. If the exports of animal products do not increase, there will be pressure on the utilisation in South Africa and have a direct impact on production.
If all of the above fall into place South Africa can be totally self-sufficient and there is some space for an increase in soya bean production.
Table 9: Self-sufficiency of total oilcake and oilcake 2020 2023 2029 Total oilcake 79% 98% 99.7% Soya oilcake 70% 97% 100%
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