WINTER CROPS  |  2021 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Caledon region)
Area Southern Cape: Caledon
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 3.20 3.20 1.75 2.60 1.30
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2021 R/ton 4 955 4 955 6 700 4 955 4 450
Total deductions R/ton 714 677 30 865 139
– Transport differential R/ton 600 600 825 100
– Grade differential R/ton 3
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 111 77 30 40 39
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 65 670
Net farm gate price R/ton 4 241 4 212 7 340 4 091 4 311
Gross income R/ha R13 571 R13 480 R12 845 R10 636 R5 605

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 39 39 37 31 16
Fertilizer R/ha 2 146 2 165 2 111 1 677 483
Lime R/ha 181 181 181 152 152
Seed R/ha 594 491 1 367 486 980
Fuel R/ha 669 722 625 656 618
Herbicide R/ha 731 606 517 406 438
Insecticide R/ha 277 273 727 202 170
Fungicides R/ha 505 607 447 397 265
Marketing costs R/ha 60 75 17
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 767 768 720 758 731
Casual labour R/ha 8 8 8 8 8
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 115 120 110 93 93
Total variable expenditure R/ha R6 092 R6 053 R6 867 R4 864 R3 954
Total variable expenditure R/ton R1 904 R1 891 R3 924 R1 871 R3 042
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R7 479 R7 427 R5 978 R5 772 R1 651
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 337 R2 321 R3 416 R2 220 R1 270
Break-even yield T/ha 1.44 1.44 0.94 1.19 0.92
Break-even price R/ton R1 904 R1 891 R3 924 R1 871 R3 042
Source: Overberg Agri, GSA and BFAP, April 2021.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Caledon region)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Caledon region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Overberg, Caledon

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.20 3.50 3.75 4.00
R3 241 2 010 2 821 3 631 4 279 5 251 6 062 6 872
R3 491 2 635 3 508 4 381 5 079 6 126 6 999 7 872
R3 741 3 260 4 196 5 131 5 879 7 001 7 937 8 872
R3 991 3 885 4 883 5 881 6 679 7 876 8 874 9 872
R4 241 4 510 5 571 6 631 7 479 8 751 9 812 10 872
R4 491 5 135 6 258 7 381 8 279 9 626 10 749 11 872
R4 741 5 760 6 946 8 131 9 079 10 501 11 687 12 872
R4 991 6 385 7 633 8 881 9 879 11 376 12 624 13 872
R5 241 7 010 8 321 9 631 10 679 12 251 13 562 14 872
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.20 3.50 3.75 4.00
R3 212 1 979 2 782 3 585 4 227 5 191 5 994 6 797
R3 462 2 604 3 469 4 335 5 027 6 066 6 932 7 797
R3 712 3 229 4 157 5 058 5 827 6 941 7 869 8 797
R3 962 3 854 4 844 5 835 6 627 7 816 8 807 9 797
R4 212 4 479 5 532 6 585 7 427 8 691 9 744 10 797
R4 462 5 104 6 219 7 335 8 227 9 566 10 682 11 797
R4 712 5 729 6 907 8 085 9 027 10 441 11 619 12 797
R4 962 6 354 7 594 8 835 9 827 11 316 12 557 13 797
R5 212 6 979 8 282 9 585 10 627 12 191 13 494 14 797
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R6 340 -527 1 058 2 643 4 228 5 813 7 398 8 983
R6 590 -277 1 371 3 018 4 666 6 313 7 961 9 608
R6 840 -27 1 683 3 393 5 103 6 813 8 523 10 233
R7 090 223 1 996 3 768 5 541 7 313 9 086 10 858
R7 340 473 2 308 4 143 5 978 7 813 9 648 11 483
R7 590 723 2 621 4 518 6 416 8 313 10 211 12 108
R7 840 973 2 933 4 893 6 853 8 813 10 773 12 733
R8 090 1 223 3 246 5 268 7 291 9 313 11 336 13 358
R8 340 1 473 3 558 5 643 7 728 9 813 11 898 13 983
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R6 590 R6 840 R7 090 R7 340 R7 590 R7 840 R8 090
0.75 -9 403 -9 216 -9 028 -8 841 -8 653 -8 466 -8 278
1.00 -7 756 -7 506 -7 256 -7 006 -6 756 -6 506 -6 256
1.25 -6 108 -5 796 -5 483 -5 171 -4 858 -4 546 -4 233
1.50 -4 461 -4 086 -3 711 -3 336 -2 961 -2 586 -2 211
1.75 -2 813 -2 376 -1 938 -1 501 -1 063 -626 -188
2.00 -1 166 -666 -166 334 834 1 334 1 834
2.25 482 1 044 1 607 2 169 2 732 3 294 3 857
2.50 2 129 2 754 3 379 4 004 4 629 5 254 5 879
2.75 3 777 4 464 5 152 5 839 6 527 7 214 7 902

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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