Projected protein requirements for animal consumption in South Africa
FEBRUARY 2018 PREPARED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE (UFS) FOR THE PROTEIN RESEARCH FOUNDATION (PRF)
Index
Introduction
The Protein Research Foundation (PRF) has as its main objective the replacement of imported protein with domestically produced protein. After many years of investigating numerous alternatives the focus changed mainly to where the largest impact could be made namely soybeans and canola.
The growth in the domestic availability of oilcake is a good measure by which the PRF could ascertain if it was achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. The targets that will need to be met in the future for the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made thus requires projections of future oilcake demands and what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, as well as when this goal is likely to be met.
To accurately measure this progress various models were developed and used over the years. A new model has been developed.
The new model methodology
Collaboration between the University of Free State Agricultural Economics department, PRF existing APR model and BFAP, created a new successful model that can accurately calculate current protein requirements and project future requirements under various scenarios.
The model considers changes in per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs as projected by BFAP as well as population growth, the quantity of meat, milk and eggs that are predicted to be imported and exported are also considered. Projected future prices of major raw materials are incorporated as well as the availability of raw materials, mainly those that are derived as by-products from various agricultural processing industries.
The genetic improvement of animals has a substantial impact on productivity, therefore changes in animal performance is an important factor that the model incorporates. The model calculates the quantity of feed required as well as raw material breakdown for these feeds.
There are several animals that are not producers of meat, milk and eggs that consume a substantial amount of animal feed including protein. The feed consumption of these animals including the protein materials also needs to be accounted for.
The model has the ability by making use of least cost linear programming considering transport costs of raw materials across various regions of the country to formulate the actual feeds required by all animals in South Africa given the constraints of which quantity of raw materials will be domestically available. The result is an accurate prediction of protein requirements and projection of protein requirements both domestically and imported.
The growth in the domestic availability of oilcake is a good measure by which the PRF could ascertain if it was achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. The targets that will need to be met in the future for the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made thus requires projections of future oilcake demands and what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, as well as when this goal is likely to be met. The APR model in collaboration with BFAP data is used to calculate these projections.
Results
Current scenario
Based on the current per capita consumption of animal products it is estimated (using the APR Model) that the requirement for animal feed in South Africa is as follows:
Table 1: National animal feed production 2018 Feed type National feed consumption (ton) Dairy 2 421 756 Beef and sheep 3 433 951 Pigs 880 623 Layers 1 053 808 Broilers 3 258 449 Pet foods 343 952 Horses 138 303 Ostriches 112 117 Aquaculture 5 314 Total 11 648 273 In terms of oilcake consumption the largest consume oilcake is still soya oilcake followed by sunflower oilcake.
Table 2: Oilcake usage for 2018 Oilcake type National consumption (ton) Soya oilcake 1 150 521 Sunflower oilcake 429 375 Canola oilcake 63 000 Palm kernel 33 075 Soya full fat 212 662 Cotton full fat 36 000 Canola full fat 3 246 Total 1 927 879 On the local market, South Africa progressed in terms of substituting imported soya oilcake with local oilcake. Currently South Arica produced 69% of the total requirement in 2018, in 2008 this was only at a 20% level. The projection for 2021 is at 89% and will increase to 95% in 2027.
Table 3: Historical usages of soya oilcake (local and imported soybeans processed in South Africa) Year Local soya oilcake (ton) Total soya oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 121 140 598 070 20 2002 141 520 616 593 23 2003 120 000 705 352 17 2004 119 280 616 596 19 2005 92 080 740 558 12 2006 210 000 849 678 25 2007 303 280 1 115 280 27 2008 253 200 1 261 791 20 2009 181 600 1 111 172 16 2010 251 840 1 083 640 23 2011 301 600 1 291 069 23 2012 347 760 1 271 341 27 2013 469 360 1 197 978 39 2014 565 280 1 232 687 46 2015 765 287 1 254 120 61 2016 768 800 1 218 001 63 2017 871 913 1 267 098 69 2018 766 795 1 150 521 69 In terms of total oilcake the local share in consumption increase from 37% in 2007 to 82% in 2018. It is projected that the local share will increase to 82% in 2021 and 94% in 2027.
Table 4: Historical usages of Total oilcake (Local and imported oilcake) Year Local oilcake (ton) Total oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 454 192 1 021 862 44 2002 482 448 1 149 224 42 2003 472 312 1 210 396 39 2004 489 413 1 121 460 44 2005 416 736 1 212 593 34 2006 572 231 1 414 338 40 2007 608 370 1 635 525 37 2008 494 557 1 758 185 28 2009 565 181 1 664 927 34 2010 701 030 1 743 137 49 2011 624 912 1 857 391 34 2012 766 927 1 856 360 41 2013 760 321 1 877 671 40 2014 913 356 1 889 979 48 2015 1 197 604 1 914 330 63 2016 1 238 120 1 965 291 63 2017 1 300 865 1 798 372 72 2018 1 441 527 1 649 498 87 Growth in requirements for animal products
In order to calculate the consumption figures of the different species it is very important to determine the demand. The demand was calculated by means of using the following macro variables in combination with animal feed conversion ratios growth figures:
- Population growth
- Per capita consumption growth
- Imported animal products
- Exported animal products
Table 5: Projections of feed and oilcake requirements to the year 2021 and 2027 Feed (ton) Oilcake (ton) Soya oilcake (ton) 2018 11 628 789 1 649 498 1 150 521 2021 12 561 132 1 764 946 1 307 338 2027 13 372 018 1 826 894 1 287 638 As explained earlier soya oilcake remains the dominant protein source in South Africa, this dominance has increased over time and will continue to do so. Soya oilcake in 2010 made up 40% of oilcake requirements, this increased to 70% in 2018 and is predicted to stabilise at 71 % in 2021. In Table 5 the soya oilcake consumption decrease from 2021 to 2027 this mainly due to the projection from BFAP that poultry imports will increase with 63% from 2021 up to 2027.
Poultry feeds make up only 39% of total feed consumed in South Africa, this market share of total feed is predicated to remain constant until 2020. Most oilcake is however used in this sector with a share of 84% of soya oilcake usage currently in this sector expected to remain relatively stable up to the year 2027.
Local soya oilcake production
The increase in local oilcake production from locally produced soybeans will make South Africa increasingly self-sufficient in protein requirements.
Table 6: Local vs imported soya oilcake Local soya oilcake Local soybean Total soya oilcake Local soya % Local (From local soybeans) ton Production (required) ton Requirements ton Production (required) ton self-sufficiency 2018 980 860 1 226 075 1 150 521 1 438 151 85 2021 1 172 228 1 465 285 1 307 338 1 634 173 89 2027 1 228 798 1 535 998 1 243 233 1 554 041 98 Oilcake requirements in South Africa are estimated at 1 649 498 tons in 2018 versus a local production of 1 441 527 tons locally produced or 87% of requirements (Table 4). The soybean requirement of 1,2 million tons is excluding the 238 000 ton fullfat soybeans and 30 000 ton for human consumption.
Soya oilcake produced in South Africa in 2018 provided 85% of the countries soya oilcake requirements (Table 6).
According to the model feed requirements will increase to 13 372 018 tons in 2027 and 12 561 132 tons in 2021. Soya oilcake requirement will be 1 307 338 tons by the year 2021 and 1 243 233 by 2027 (Table 5). There is a decrease in requirements which can be attributed to an increase in feed conversion ratios.
Estimates indicate an 98% self-sufficiency by 2027 and a 89% by 2021 in terms of soybeans, this can be attributed to an increase in production of soybeans estimated by BFAP (Table 5).
Figure 1: Growth in self-sufficiency in terms of soya oilcake 
Although beef and sheep combined is the largest consumer of animal feed, the poultry sector plays a major role in oilcake and particularly soya oilcake usage. Growth and sustainability in the poultry industry will play a major role in oilcake requirements.
Figure 2: Specie feed consumption 
Table 7: National animal feed production 2020 and 2026 Feed type National feed consumption 2021 (ton National feed consumption 2027 (ton) Dairy 2 538 634 2 762 097 Beef and sheep 3 770 587 4 131 534 Pigs 981 688 1 138 128 Layers 1 116 578 1 163 747 Broilers 3 498 788 3 393 667 Other 654 857 782 845 Total 12 561 132 13 372 018 Table 8: Oilcake usage projection 2021 and 2027 Oilcake 2021 ton 2027 ton Soya oilcake 1 307 388 1 287 638 Sunflower oilcake 356 299 362 300 Canola oilcake 63 000 125 064 Palm kernel 37 710 42 993 Soya full fat 147 302 159 000 Cotton full fat 36 000 65 086 Canola full fat 3 246 5 345 Total 1 950 945 2 047 426
Conclusion
South African feed consumption decreased drastically in 2017 this was mainly due to the lag effect of the drought but more importantly the outbreak of bird flu within the borders of South Africa. However in 2018 there were a slight recovery on feed consumption. However, given the major increase in production of local soybeans the self-sufficiency increased drastically. In terms of total oilcake consumption, South Africa is at a level of 87% self-sufficient. This is expected to increase towards 2027 indicating the progress South Africa is making in substituting imports.
Table 9: Self-sufficiency of total oilcake and oilcake 2018 2021 2027 Total oilcake 87% 90% 94% Soya oilcake 85% 89% 98%
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