Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated October 2016)

Table 1

Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
Requirements / Sales	45 000	20 000	20 000	1 966 459	1 981 986	1 929 102
Available / Produced	85 000	78 000	78 000	1 170 699	1 229 277	1 139 098
Shortage / Imports	-40 000	-58 000	-58 000	795 760	682 709	790 004

2015/2016 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2

Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
AFMA Members	23 185	12 178	23 185	1 343 025	1 385 703	1 358 760
Non-AFMA Members	21 815	7 822	21 815	623 434	580 756	570 342
Total	45 000	20 000	45 000	1 966 459	1 966 459	1 929 102

Source: AFMA website
2015/2016 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3

The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)

	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Sunflower oilcake	294 583	4.58	308 633	4.30	277 608	4.16
Groundnut oilcake	1 917	0.03	573	0.01	0	0.00
Soya oilcake	821 670	12.78	936 283	13.03	941 004	14.08
Full fat soya	75 267	1.17	72 415	1.01	66 588	1.00
Cottonseed oilcake	20 892	0.32	8 888	0.12	8 700	0.13
Full fat cottonseed	10 340	0.16	7 845	0.11	9 060	0.14
Canola oilcake	23 555	0.37	38 109	0.53	45 012	0.67
Full fat canola	0	0.00	546	0.00	336	0.00
Copra and Palm kernel	23 231	0.36	11 568	0.16	10 452	0.16
Maize germ oilcake	1 368	0.02	843	0.01	0	0.00
Total oilcake	1 343 025	19.79	1 385 703	19.29	1 358 760	20.34
Total maize products	3 493 998	51.69	3 595 160	50.05	3 468 480	51.92
Total fishmeal	23 185	0.31	12 178	0.17	12 064	0.18
Feed	6 714 004		6 908 424		6 680 988

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2016 to March 2017. Actual.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4

Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2015/2016) (April-March)

	Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton)				Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016 PROJECT	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016
RSA	70 000	65 000	62 000	64 600
Namibia ¹	14 000	13 000	13 000	13 000
Total	84 000	78 000	75 000	77 600	0	0	0

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2015/2016 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5

Oilcake: local production and imports   (2014/2015-2016/2017)

	Local Oilcake production (ton)			Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017 (Projected)	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017 (Projected)
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake	0	0	0	588	0	0
Sunflower oilcake	320 842	280 368	281 200	166 273	67 887	70 000
Soya cake	654 839	750 898	668 800	609 613	587 692	618 004
– Full fat	118 598	121 763	105 000
Cotton cake				98 478	59 468	60 000
– Full fat	8 740	19 098	19 098	11 749	25 898	12 000
Other:
Canola	53 680	51 150	51 000	0	0	0
Lupins	14 000	6 000	14 000	0	0	0
Copra and Palm kernel				57 035	24 713	30 000
Total	1 170 699	1 229 277	1 139 098	943 736	765 658	790 004

Source: SAGIS
2015/2016 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 30 September 2016.

Table 6

Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2012/2013-2016/2017 marketing season)

Crop	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
White maize	6 740 000	5 545 000	7 710 000	4 735 000	3 253 775
Yellow maize	5 090 000	6 145 000	6 540 000	5 220 000	4 283 100
Sorghum	135 500	147 200	265 000	120 500	74 150
Groundnuts	59 000	41 500	74 500	62 300	18 850
Sunflower	522 000	557 000	832 000	663 000	755 000
Soybeans	650 000	784 500	948 000	1 070 000	741 550
Cotton seed ¹	22 326	26 300	8 740	19 098	19 098
Wheat	1 870 000	1 870 000	1 750 000	1 457 015	1 700 390
Canola	79 000	112 041	121 000	97 600	102 060

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth production forecast 2016 (27 September 2016) and winter final crop estimate for the 2015 marketing year (27 September 2016).
¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7

Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2016/2017 marketing season)

Crop	Opening stock	Imports to RSA	Producer deliveries	Exports	Total supply
White Maize	1 307 867	850 000	3 173 775	580 000	4 751 642
Yellow maize	1 163 200	1 850 000	3 933 100	350 000	6 596 300
Sorghum	80 142	90 000	71 650	19 000	255 792
Groundnuts	13 300	0	18 850	16 000	16 150
Sunflower	45 867	35 000	755 000	100	835 767
Soybeans	89 128	300 000	709 550	4 500	1 094 178
Wheat	835 623	1 500 000	1 662 390	170 000	3 828 013
Canola	12 500	0	102 060	0	114 560

Source: Opening stock, import and export figures obtained from South African Supply and Demand.
Estimates Report, National Agricultural Marketing Council, 30 September 2016.

Table 8

Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2011/2012-2016/2017 production season)

	Ha Planted
Crop	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
White maize	1 636 200	1 617 200	1 551 200	1 448 050	1 421 800	1 014 750
Yellow maize	1 063 000	1 164 000	1 137 000	1 204 800	1 129 000	932 000
Sorghum	48 550	62 620	78 850	70 500	74 750	48 500
Groundnuts	45 450	46 900	52 125	58 000	44 700	22 600
Sunflower	453 350	504 700	598 950	576 000	614 000	718 500
Soybeans	472 000	516 500	502 900	687 300	696 400	502 800
Wheat	604 700	511 200	505 500	477 650	482 150	508 150
Canola	43 510	44 100	72 165	80 000	78 050	68 075
Total	4 366 760	4 467 220	4 498 690	4 602 300	4 540 850	3 815 375

Source: National Crops Estimates Committee – Second production forecast 2016 (27 September 2016). Area estimate to plant Winter crops 2016 production season (27 September 2016).

Table 9

Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops

Crops	Season
White maize	May-April
Yellow maize	May-April
Sorghum	April-March
Groundnuts	March-February
Sunflower	January-December
Soybeans	January-December
Wheat	October-September