Statistics & Estimates / Protein Statistics / Protein Statistics 2016 October

Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated October 2016)

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
Requirements / Sales 45 000 20 000 20 000 1 966 459 1 981 986 1 929 102
Available / Produced 85 000 78 000 78 000 1 170 699 1 229 277 1 139 098
Shortage / Imports -40 000 -58 000 -58 000 795 760 682 709 790 004

2015/2016 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
AFMA Members 23 185 12 178 23 185 1 343 025 1 385 703 1 358 760
Non-AFMA Members 21 815 7 822 21 815 623 434 580 756 570 342
Total 45 000 20 000 45 000 1 966 459 1 966 459 1 929 102

Source: AFMA website
2015/2016 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2014/2015   2015/2016   2016/2017  
Sunflower oilcake 294 583 4.58 308 633 4.30 277 608 4.16
Groundnut oilcake 1 917 0.03 573 0.01 0 0.00
Soya oilcake 821 670 12.78 936 283 13.03 941 004 14.08
Full fat soya 75 267 1.17 72 415 1.01 66 588 1.00
Cottonseed oilcake 20 892 0.32 8 888 0.12 8 700 0.13
Full fat cottonseed 10 340 0.16 7 845 0.11 9 060 0.14
Canola oilcake 23 555 0.37 38 109 0.53 45 012 0.67
Full fat canola 0 0.00 546 0.00 336 0.00
Copra and Palm kernel 23 231 0.36 11 568 0.16 10 452 0.16
Maize germ oilcake 1 368 0.02 843 0.01 0 0.00
Total oilcake 1 343 025 19.79 1 385 703 19.29 1 358 760 20.34
Total maize products 3 493 998 51.69 3 595 160 50.05 3 468 480 51.92
Total fishmeal 23 185 0.31 12 178 0.17 12 064 0.18
Feed 6 714 004   6 908 424   6 680 988  

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2016 to March 2017. Actual.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
PROJECT
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
RSA 70 000 65 000 62 000 64 600
Namibia ¹ 14 000 13 000 13 000 13 000
Total 84 000 78 000 75 000 77 600 0 0 0

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2015/2016 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2014/2015-2016/2017)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
(Projected)
2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
(Projected)
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 0 0 0 588 0 0
Sunflower oilcake 320 842 280 368 281 200 166 273 67 887 70 000
Soya cake 654 839 750 898 668 800 609 613 587 692 618 004
  – Full fat 118 598 121 763 105 000
Cotton cake 98 478 59 468 60 000
  – Full fat 8 740 19 098 19 098 11 749 25 898 12 000
Other:
Canola 53 680 51 150 51 000 0 0 0
Lupins 14 000 6 000 14 000 0 0 0
Copra and Palm kernel 57 035 24 713 30 000
Total 1 170 699 1 229 277 1 139 098 943 736 765 658 790 004

Source: SAGIS
2015/2016 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 30 September 2016.

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2012/2013-2016/2017 marketing season)
Crop 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
White maize 6 740 000 5 545 000 7 710 000 4 735 000 3 253 775
Yellow maize 5 090 000 6 145 000 6 540 000 5 220 000 4 283 100
Sorghum 135 500 147 200 265 000 120 500 74 150
Groundnuts 59 000 41 500 74 500 62 300 18 850
Sunflower 522 000 557 000 832 000 663 000 755 000
Soybeans 650 000 784 500 948 000 1 070 000 741 550
Cotton seed ¹ 22 326 26 300 8 740 19 098 19 098
Wheat 1 870 000 1 870 000 1 750 000 1 457 015 1 700 390
Canola 79 000 112 041 121 000 97 600 102 060

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth production forecast 2016 (27 September 2016) and winter final crop estimate for the 2015 marketing year (27 September 2016).
¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2016/2017 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Producer deliveries Exports Total supply
White Maize 1 307 867 850 000 3 173 775 580 000 4 751 642
Yellow maize 1 163 200 1 850 000 3 933 100 350 000 6 596 300
Sorghum 80 142 90 000 71 650 19 000 255 792
Groundnuts 13 300 0 18 850 16 000 16 150
Sunflower 45 867 35 000 755 000 100 835 767
Soybeans 89 128 300 000 709 550 4 500 1 094 178
Wheat 835 623 1 500 000 1 662 390 170 000 3 828 013
Canola 12 500 0 102 060 0 114 560

Source: Opening stock, import and export figures obtained from South African Supply and Demand.
Estimates Report, National Agricultural Marketing Council, 30 September 2016.

Table 8
Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2011/2012-2016/2017 production season)
  Ha Planted
Crop 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
White maize 1 636 200 1 617 200 1 551 200 1 448 050 1 421 800 1 014 750
Yellow maize 1 063 000 1 164 000 1 137 000 1 204 800 1 129 000 932 000
Sorghum 48 550 62 620 78 850 70 500 74 750 48 500
Groundnuts 45 450 46 900 52 125 58 000 44 700 22 600
Sunflower 453 350 504 700 598 950 576 000 614 000 718 500
Soybeans 472 000 516 500 502 900 687 300 696 400 502 800
Wheat 604 700 511 200 505 500 477 650 482 150 508 150
Canola 43 510 44 100 72 165 80 000 78 050 68 075
Total 4 366 760 4 467 220 4 498 690 4 602 300 4 540 850 3 815 375

Source: National Crops Estimates Committee – Second production forecast 2016 (27 September 2016). Area estimate to plant Winter crops 2016 production season (27 September 2016).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crops Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September