Projected protein requirements for animal consumption in South Africa
JANUARY 2019 PREPARED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE (UFS) FOR THE PROTEIN RESEARCH FOUNDATION (PRF)
Index
Introduction
The Protein Research Foundation (PRF) has as its main objective the replacement of imported protein with domestically produced protein. After many years of investigating numerous alternatives the focus changed mainly to where the largest impact could be made namely soybeans and canola.
The growth in the domestic availability of oilcake is a good measure by which the PRF could ascertain if it was achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. The targets that will need to be met in the future for the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made thus requires projections of future oilcake demands and what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, as well as when this goal is likely to be met.
To accurately measure this progress various models were developed and used over the years. A new model has been developed.
The model considers changes in per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs as projected by BFAP as well as population growth, the quantity of meat, milk and eggs that are predicted to be imported and exported are also considered. Projected future prices of major raw materials are incorporated as well as the availability of raw materials, mainly those that are derived as by-products from various agricultural processing industries.
The genetic improvement of animals has a substantial impact on productivity, therefore changes in animal performance is an important factor that the model incorporates. The model calculates the quantity of feed required as well as raw material breakdown for these feeds.
There are several animals that are not producers of meat, milk and eggs that consume a substantial amount of animal feed including protein. The feed consumption of these animals including the protein materials also needs to be accounted for.
The model has the ability by making use of least cost linear programming considering transport costs of raw materials across various regions of the country to formulate the actual feeds required by all animals in South Africa given the constraints of which quantity of raw materials will be domestically available. The result is an accurate prediction of protein requirements and projection of protein requirements both domestically and imported.
The growth in the domestic availability of oilcake is a good measure by which the PRF could ascertain if it was achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. The targets that will need to be met in the future for the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made thus requires projections of future oilcake demands and what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, as well as when this goal is likely to be met. The APR model in collaboration with BFAP data is used to calculate these projections.
Results
Current scenario
Based on the current per capita consumption of animal products it is estimated (using the APR Model) that the requirement for animal feed in South Africa is as follows:
Table 1: National animal feed production 2019 Feed types National feed consumption (ton) Aquaculture 11 424 Broiler 3 125 196 Cattle beef 2 754 272 Cattle dairy 2 573 538 Horses 121 175 Layer 1 241 259 Ostriches 77 036 Pets 429 549 Pigs 1 051 796 Sheep 236 970 Various 10 Grand total 11 622 225 In terms of oilcake the largest consumed oilcake is still soya oilcake followed by sunflower oilcake.
Table 2: Oilcake usage for 2019 Oilcake type National consumption (ton) Cotton full fat 78 686 Soya full fat 124 044 Canola oilcake 53 930 Soya oilcake 1 218 000 Sunflower oilcake 358 085 Palm kernel meal 42 993 Total 1 875 738 On the local market, South Africa progressed in terms of substituting imported soya oilcake with local oilcake. Currently South Africa produced 67% of the total requirement in 2019, in 2009 this was only at a 16% level. The projection for 2022 is at 89% and will increase to 98% in 2028.
Table 3: Historical usages of soya oilcake (Local and imported soybeans processed in South Africa) Year Local soya oilcake (ton) Total soya oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 121 140 598 070 20 2002 141 520 616 593 23 2003 120 000 705 352 17 2004 119 280 616 596 19 2005 92 080 740 558 12 2006 210 000 849 678 25 2007 303 280 1 115 280 27 2008 253 200 1 261 791 20 2009 181 600 1 111 172 16 2010 251 840 1 083 640 23 2011 301 600 1 291 069 23 2012 347 760 1 271 341 27 2013 469 360 1 197 978 39 2014 565 280 1 232 687 46 2015 765 287 1 254 120 61 2016 768 800 1 218 001 63 2017 836 285 1 267 098 66 2018 766 795 1 150 521 66 2019 820 000 1 218 000 67 In terms of total oilcake the local share in consumption increase from 34% in 2009 to 76% in 2019. It is projected that the local share will increase to 84% in 2022 and 88% in 2028.
Table 4: Historical usages of Total oilcake (Local and imported oilcake) Year Local oilcake (ton) Total oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 454 192 1 021 862 44 2002 482 448 1 149 224 42 2003 472 312 1 210 396 39 2004 489 413 1 121 460 44 2005 416 736 1 212 593 34 2006 572 231 1 414 338 40 2007 608 370 1 635 525 37 2008 494 557 1 758 185 28 2009 565 181 1 664 927 34 2010 701 030 1 743 137 49 2011 624 912 1 857 391 34 2012 766 927 1 856 360 41 2013 760 321 1 877 671 40 2014 913 356 1 889 979 48 2015 1 197 604 1 914 330 63 2016 1 238 120 1 965 291 63 2017 1 300 865 1 798 372 72 2018 1 441 527 1 649 498 87 2019 1 434 660 1 875 738 76 Growth in requirements for animal products
In order to calculate the consumption figures of the different species it is very important to determine the demand. The demand was calculated by means of using the following macro variables in combination with animal feed conversion ratios growth figures:
- Population growth
- Per Capita consumption growth
- Imported animal products
- Exported animal products
Table 5: Projections of feed and oilcake requirements to the year 2022 and 2028 Feed (ton) Oilcake (ton) Soya oilcake (ton) 2019 11 622 225 1 875 738 1 218 000 2022 12 321 771 2 024 101 1 255 323 2028 13 426 384 2 160 266 1 298 528 As explained earlier soya oilcake remains the dominant protein source in South Africa, this dominance has increased over time and will continue to do so. Soya oilcake in 2010 made up 40% of oilcake requirements, this increased to 65% in 2019.
Local soya oilcake production
The increase in local oilcake production from locally produced soybeans will make South Africa increasingly self-sufficient in protein requirements.
Local soya oilcake Local soybean Total soya oilcake Local soya % Local (From local soybeans) ton Production (required) ton Requirements ton Production (required) ton self-sufficiency 2019 820 000 1 025 000 1 218 000 1 522 500 67 2022 929 788 1 162 235 1 255 323 1 569 154 74 2028 1 048 230 1 310 288 1 298 528 1 623 160 81 Oilcake requirements in South Africa are estimated at 1 875 738 tons in 2019 versus a local production of 1 434 660 tons locally produced or 76% of requirements (Table 4). The soybean requirement of 1,2 million tons is excluding the 124 000 ton fullfat soybeans and 30 000 ton for human consumption.
Soya oilcake produced in South Africa in 2019 provided 67% of the countries soya oilcake requirements (Table 6). It is forecasted to increase to 81% in 2028 which is due to mainly imports of oilcake at coastal regions. Logistics is still creating challenges to be competitive against imports.
According to the model feed requirements will increase to 13 426 384 tons in 2028 and 12 321 771 tons in 2022. Soya oilcake requirement will be 1 255 323 tons by the year 2022 and 1 298 528 by 2028 (Table 5).
Estimates indicate an 81% self-sufficiency by 2028 and a 74% by 2022 in terms of soybeans, this can be attributed to an increase in production of soybeans estimated by BFAP and a decrease in imported soybean oilcake. (Table 5).
Figure 1: Growth in self-sufficiency in terms of soya oilcake 
Broiler and Layer diets is playing an enormous role within the industry. Growth and sustainability in the poultry industry will play a major role in oilcake requirements within the future and it is good news to see that this is part of the recent masterplan submitted towards government. The second important roleplayer is the Beef and Sheep industry, in order to sustain growth and consumption of feed it is important that bio security be managed efficiently within South Africa. This is especially seen with the recent food and mouth breakouts in South Africa.
Figure 2: Specie feed consumption 
Table 7: National animal feed production 2022 and 2028 Feed type National feed consumption 2022 (ton) National feed consumption 2028 (ton) Dairy 2 635 407 2 794 482 Beef and sheep 3 205 596 3 565 587 Pigs 1 122 912 1 283 404 Layers 1 312 806 1 429 807 Broilers 3 347 253 3 637 052 Other 697 797 716 052 Total 12 321 771 13 426 384 Table 8: Oilcake usage projection 2022 and 2028 Oilcake 2022 ton 2028 ton Soya oilcake 1 255 323 1 298 528 Sunflower oilcake 432 231 484 565 Canola oilcake 62 885 76 318 Palm kernel 49 018 49 018 Soya full fat 141 644 151 837 Cotton full fat 83 000 100 000 Total 2 024 101 2 160 266
Conclusion
Seasonality is playing an important role in terms of self-sufficiency and usage. Together with this the consumption of animal feed were also highly affected the past three season with factors such as bird flu and food and mouth disease which at the end limited exports of beef. The scenarios in this report is also based on the assumption that the poultry master plan would keep poultry imports stable. However if poultry imports keep increasing this will affect the usage of raw materials and national feed figures.
Looking at the forecast South Africa is progressing towards being self sufficient in terms of oilcakes, if one evaluates the summary within Table 9. However there is still a portion that will be imported and this is a function of infrastructure and coastal consumption.
Table 9: Self-sufficiency of total oilcake and oilcake 2019 2022 2028 Total oilcake 76% 84% 88% Soya oilcake 67% 74% 81%
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