Editor's note

Soya and poultry: Growth amid challenges

The growth in oilseed production is commendable and has strengthened the supply chain. However, demand remains sluggish despite prices being below import parity, placing the feed and animal production industry in an excellent position regarding feed raw material costs. Weak buying power is driven by low economic growth and limited disposable income, leading to stagnation in consumer spending.

Last year, the domestic requirement for oilcake was estimated at two million tonnes, while production reached 1,84 million tonnes and 92% self-sufficiency. Projections indicate that South Africa is expected to maintain a protein self-sufficiency position in the foreseeable future.

Prospects and risks in the poultry industry

Dr Tracy Davids of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) noted in the September edition of Oilseeds Focus that the outlook for the poultry industry, the largest consumer of oilseed proteins, is positive. However, increasing disease outbreaks pose a major risk to the industry, alongside challenges related to failing infrastructure and services, which are critical to the industry’s prosperity.

Industry efforts and government support are aimed at improving competitiveness and access to new exports markets for poultry products, such as the European Union and the Middle East. Growth in export demand for poultry meat could become the main driver of increased soya bean meal demand if this initiative is successful.

Soya bean supply, demand, and exports

Soya bean production in South Africa has grown significantly, driven primarily by economics and demand, and plays a critical role in crop rotation, benefiting soil health and producer viability. Production has increased from one million tonnes in 2015 to an estimated 2,7 million tonnes today.

According to the National Agricultural Marketing Council’s September 2025 supply and demand estimate, carryover stock is projected at 442 000 tonnes (approximately three months) if exports of 300 000 tonnes can be achieved. With the new season outlook appearing very positive due to favourable rainfall, Safex soya bean prices will need to decline by around R200/t to enable deep-water exports. Should these exports not occur in 2025 before the new season Brazilian crop enters the market, South Africa risks accumulating excessive soya bean stock.

Currently, China’s preference for Brazilian soya beans has discounted United States soya beans in our traditional Southeast Asian markets. Ideally, South Africa should export both soya beans and soya bean meal to maintain a balance between supply and demand. However, exporting substantial quantities of soya bean meal remains a logistical challenge, as there are no existing facilities equipped to handle this movement.

DR ERHARD BRIEDENHANN