Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated November 2003)

Table 1

Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
Requirements / Sales	118 414	82 988	127 000	1 149 224	1 210 396	1 200 000
Available / Produced	128 000	123 000	122 000	482 448	472 311	417 360
Shortage / Imports	-9 586	-40 012	5 000	666 776	738 085	782 640

2003/2004 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry / AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003

Table 2

Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
AFMA Members	100 652	70 540	109 622	796 977	816 934	779 659
Non-AFMA Members	17 762	12 448	17 378	352 247	393 462	420 341
Total	118 414	82 988	127 000	1 149 224	1 210 396	1 200 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
2003/2004 – Estimate
Non-AFMA Members usage estimated at 13.7% of total fishmeal usage for 03/04.
Non-AFMA Members usage estimated at 35% of total oilcake usage for 03/04.

Table 3

The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials	2001/2002		2002/2003		2003/2004
Sunflower oilcake	232 460	5.71	212 359	5.18	300 386	7.26
Groundnuts oilcake	4 942	0.12	7 386	0.18	2 810	0.07
Soy oilcake	368 054	9.06	413 443	11.07	310 020	7.49
Full fat soy	127 492	3.18	121 426	2.96	114 776	2.77
Cotton oilcake	43 216	1.03	44 939	1.09	33 946	0.82
Full fat cotton	10 525	0.26	6 768	0.16	3 843	0.09
Canola oilcake	8 347	0.15	7 514	0.18	8 064	0.20
Full fat canola					842	0.02
Total oilcake	796 977	19.53	816 934	19.90	779 659	18.84
Total maize products	2 227 979	55.58	2 268 560	55.27	2 283 082	55.16
Total fishmeal	100 652	2.48	70 540	1.72	109 622	2.65

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
AFMA raw material usage April 2003 to March 2004.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4

Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton)			Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
RSA	115 000	110 000	110 000
Namibia	13 000	13 000	12 000
Total	128 000	123 000	122 000	-9 586	-40 012	5 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2003/2004 – Estimate

Table 5

Oilcake: local production and imports   (2001/2002-2003/2004)

	Local Oilcake production (ton)			Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
Oilcake
Groundnuts oilcake	7 437	8 132	8 025
Sunflower oilcake	271 740	293 328	296 814	67 151	14 112
Soy cake	38 445	7 440		459 266	562 266
– Full fat	103 075	112 560	72 256	15 807	22 800
– Beans
Cotton cake	25 945	16 781	13 041	91 025	88 921
– Full fat	5 306	1 485		24 565	24 474
Other				8 610	25 226
Canola	14 162	20 885	22 424
Lupins	16 338	11 700	4 800
Copra & Palm Kernel				352
Total	482 448	472 311	417 360	666 776	738 085	782 641

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
2003/2004 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soy and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6

Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (1999/2000-2003/2004 marketing season)

Crop	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
White maize	4 664 000	6 154 500	4 109 790	5 078 000	5 862 400
Yellow maize	2 681 000	3 986 440	3 115 350	3 386 000	3 256 375
Sorghum	155 950	352 450	175 580	208 000	196 703
Groundnuts	98 250	113 550	183 840	120 000	66 205
Sunflower	1 109 000	530 625	638 320	932 000	706 760
Soybeans	188 367	148 720	209 705	216 000	139 420
Cotton seed¹	77 280	40 537	34 438	36 530	28 752
Wheat	1 725 000	2 122 440	2 492 880	2 320 745	1 565 100
Sweet lupins	13 000	17 360	16 338	11 700	3 030
Canola	23 000	26 549	25 750	37 975	36 440

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Third estimate for winter crops (20 August 2003) and final production estimate for summer crops for the 2003/2004 marketing year (20 August 2003).
SAGIS; ¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7

Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2003/2004 marketing season)

Crop	Opening stock	Imports to RSA	Production	Total supply
White maize	1 718 000	0	5 862 000	7 580 000
Yellow maize	992 000	150 000	3 256 000	4 398 000
Sorghum	44 000	30 000	207 000	281 000
Groundnuts	40 300	14 000	66 200	120 500
Sunflower	283 000	1 000	707 000	991 000
Soybeans	105 300	20 000	139 000	264 300
Wheat	915 000	840 000	1 674 000	3 429 000
Canola	1 600	0	40 700	42 300

Source: Opening stock, import and production figures obtained from Grain South Africa.
Maize production figures differ from the NCEC figures as GSA includes early deliveries in their opening stocks.

Table 8

Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (1998/1999-2003/2004 production season)

	Ha Planted
Crop	1998/1999	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
White maize	1 829 700	2 003 000	1 596 005	1 721 580	2 083 350
Yellow maize	1 075 000	1 227 440	1 111 900	1 111 000	1 017 000
Sorghum	98 900	142 200	88 300	75 000	84 610
Groundnuts	94 550	82 600	165 250	94 160	50 300
Sunflower	828 000	396 350	521 695	645 510	628 100
Soybeans	130 500	93 787	134 150	124 150	108 130
Wheat	748 000	718 000	860 000	959 400	941 100	748 000
Sweet lupins	16 300	19 000	14 705	14 785	11 000	10 100
Canola	17 000	25 000	19 145	27 000	33 000	44 200

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Area estimate for summer crops 2002/2003 production season. Third area estimate for winter crops 2003/2004 production season.

Table 9

Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops

Crops	Season
White maize	May-April
Yellow maize	May-April
Sorghum	April-March
Groundnuts	March-February
Sunflower	January-December
Soybeans	January-December
Wheat	October-September