Projected protein requirements for animal consumption in South Africa
MARCH 2022 PROJECT FOR THE PROTEIN RESEARCH FOUNDATION (PRF)
Index
Introduction
The Protein Research Foundation (PRF) has as its main objective the replacement of imported protein with domestically produced protein for animal feed. After many years of investigating numerous protein sources, the PRF decided to focus its research on soybeans and canola, believing that these would make the largest impact on its objective.
Growth in the domestic production of oilcake is the best measure by which the PRF can ascertain the extent to which it is achieving its objectives, by way of supporting the industry with research, new technology and technology transfer. For the PRF to continue to emulate the great progress that has been made to date, targets need to be defined, for which projections need to be made of future oilcake demands, what will be required to obtain self-sufficiency, and when this goal is likely to be met.
To measure this progress accurately, various models have been developed and used over the years. Recently, a new model has been developed which considers changes in per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs as projected by BFAP, as well as population growth. The quantity of meat, milk and eggs that are predicted to be imported and exported are also considered. Incorporated into the model are projected future prices and availability of major raw materials, mainly those that are derived as by-products from various agricultural processing industries. The model calculates the quantity of feed required as well as the raw material breakdown for these feeds.
The genetic improvement of animals has a substantial impact on productivity, therefore the change in animal performance is an important factor considered by the model.
There are several animal species, such as dogs and cats, that are not producers of meat, milk and eggs but which nevertheless consume substantial amounts of animal feed, including protein. The feed and protein consumption of these animals also needs to be accounted for.
Making use of least cost linear programming and considering transport costs of raw materials across various regions of the country, the model formulates the actual feed required by all animals in South Africa given the constraint of the quantity of raw materials that are domestically available. The result is an accurate prediction of current and projected protein requirements both domestically and imported.
Results
Current scenario
Based on the current per capita consumption of animal products it is estimated (using the APR Model) that the requirement for animal feed in South Africa is as shown in Table 1:
Table 1: National animal feed production 2021 Feed type National feed consumption (ton) Aquaculture 5 125 Broiler 3 326 392 Cattle beef 2 920 558 Cattle dairy 2 600 809 Horses 127 310 Layer 1 305 565 Ostriches 88 014 Pets 368 287 Pigs 1 086 174 Sheep 258 888 Various 10 Grand total 12 087 124 Soya oilcake remains the most consumed oilcake in South Africa, followed by sunflower oilcake (Table 2).
Table 2: Oilcake usage for 2021 Oilcake type National consumption (ton) Cotton full fat 9 000 Soya full fat 155 000 Canola oilcake 74 000 Soya oilcake 1 444 193 Sunflower oilcake 381 804 Palm kernel meal 5 700 Total 2 069 697 On the local market, South Africa progressed in terms of substituting imported soya oilcake with local oilcake. Currently South Africa produces 73% of the total requirement in 2022, whereas in 2009 this was only 16% (Table 3). The projection for 2024 is 81% and will increase to 100% in 2030. However, the substitution is highly dependent on efficient infrastructure and logistical support, providing internal raw materials to coastal areas at competitive prices. The usage of oilcake is also sensitive in terms of price and competition for raw materials containing protein. For instance, an increase in lucerne production or wet-milled by-products directly affects the usage of oilcakes.
Table 3: Historical usages of soya oilcake (Local and imported soybeans processed in South Africa) Year Local soya oilcake (ton) Total soya oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 121 140 598 070 20 2002 141 520 616 593 23 2003 120 000 705 352 17 2004 119 280 616 596 19 2005 92 080 740 558 12 2006 210 000 849 678 25 2007 303 280 1 115 280 27 2008 253 200 1 261 791 20 2009 181 600 1 111 172 16 2010 251 840 1 083 640 23 2011 301 600 1 291 069 23 2012 347 760 1 271 341 27 2013 469 360 1 197 978 39 2014 565 280 1 232 687 46 2015 765 287 1 254 120 61 2016 768 800 1 218 001 63 2017 836 285 1 267 098 66 2018 766 795 1 150 521 66 2019 820 000 1 218 000 67 2020 849 700 1 213 700 70 2021 1 073 682 1 444 193 73 In terms of total oilcake, the local share in consumption increased from 34% in 2009 to 79% in 2020, and kept constant at 79% in 2021 (Table 4). It is projected that the local share will increase to 85% in 2024 and 99,7% in 2030.
Table 4: Historical usages of Total oilcake (Local and imported oilcake) Year Local oilcake (ton) Total oilcake (ton) Local % 2001 454 192 1 021 862 44 2002 482 448 1 149 224 42 2003 472 312 1 210 396 39 2004 489 413 1 121 460 44 2005 416 736 1 212 593 34 2006 572 231 1 414 338 40 2007 608 370 1 635 525 37 2008 494 557 1 758 185 28 2009 565 181 1 664 927 34 2010 701 030 1 743 137 49 2011 624 912 1 857 391 34 2012 766 927 1 856 360 41 2013 760 321 1 877 671 40 2014 913 356 1 889 979 48 2015 1 197 604 1 914 330 63 2016 1 238 120 1 965 291 63 2017 1 300 865 1 798 372 72 2018 1 441 527 1 649 498 87 2019 1 434 660 1 875 738 76 2020 1 485 183 1 885 663 79 2021 1 643 916 2 069 697 79 Growth in requirements for animal products
To calculate the consumption figures of the different species it is important to determine the demand for their products. This was calculated using the following macro variables in combination with animal feed conversion ratios and growth projections:
- Population growth
- Per Capita consumption growth
- Imported animal products
- Exported animal products
Table 5: Projections of feed and oilcake requirements to the year 2024 and 2030 Year Feed (ton) Oilcake (ton) Soya oilcake (ton) 2021 12 087 124 2 069 697 1 444 193 2024 12 803 849 2 147 953 1 515 659 2030 13 631 093 2 202 461 1 537 560 As explained earlier, soya oilcake remains the dominant protein source in South Africa. This dominance has increased over time and will continue to do so. Future consumption of soya oilcake is highly influenced by feed conversion ratios (FCR), which, if these continue to improve, will stabilise future consumption. However, exports of beef, sheep and the prospect of chicken being exported will increase the consumption of animal feed and will have an impact on the end consumption figures for 2030.
Local soya oilcake production
The increase in local oilcake production from locally produced soybeans will make South Africa increasingly self-sufficient in protein requirements.
Total oilcake requirements in South Africa are estimated at 2 069 697 tons in 2022 versus a local production of 1 518 123 tons locally produced, or 73% of requirements (Table 4). The soybean requirement of 1 925 590 tons excludes full fat soybeans and those used for human consumption. This production is needed to obtain 1 444 193 tons of oilcake.
Soya oilcake produced in South Africa in 2021 provided 74% of the country's soya oilcake requirements (Table 6). This is forecast to increase to 100% in 2030. Logistics remains a challenge and, to be competitive against imports, must be kept in consideration if these levels are to be reached. Most of the oilcake is produced inland and needs to be transported to the coastal regions. To satisfy local demand 1 925 590 tons of soybeans is needed.
According to the model, feed requirements will increase to 12 830 849 tons in 2022 and to 13 631 093 tons in 2030. Soya oilcake requirement will be 1 515 659 tons by the year 2024 and 1 537 560 by 2030 (Table 6).
Table 6: Local vs imported soya oilcake Local soya oilcake Local soybean Total soya oilcake Local soya % Local (From local soybeans) ton Production (required) ton Requirements ton Production (required) ton self-sufficiency 2021 1 073 682 1 264 000 1 444 193 1 925 590 74 2024 1 238 659 1 651 545 1 515 659 2 020 879 81 2030 1 537 560 2 050 080 1 537 560 2 050 080 100 Figure 1: Growth in self-sufficiency in terms of soya oilcake 
Feed for broilers and laying hens plays an enormous role within the industry. Therefore, growth and sustainability in the poultry industry will play a major role in oilcake requirements in the future and it is good news to see that this is part of the recent Masterplan submitted to government. However, implementation is slow, and the impact of import replacement and export expansion is yet to be seen. After poultry, the next important role-players are the beef and sheep industries: in order to sustain growth in feed consumption in these industries it is critical that biosecurity be managed efficiently in South Africa. Other than for normal population growth figures, the largest increase in animal feed consumption is due to exports of animal products such as mutton, beef and chicken.
Figure 2: Specie feed consumption 2021 
Table 7: National animal feed production 2024 and 2030 Feed type 2021 2024 2030 National feed consumption (ton) Broilers 3 326 393 3 471 168 3 503 856 Layers 1 305 565 1 360 878 1 450 431 Beef and sheep 3 179 437 3 505 158 3 757 427 Dairy 2 600 810 2 688 817 2 914 832 Pigs 1 086 174 1 147 061 1 308 938 Other 588 746 630 767 695 610 Total 12 087 124 12 803 850 13 331 094
Conclusion
The prospect of South Africa in the future becoming independent of imported protein for animal feed looks increasingly promising. However, this is dependent on several factors. With increasing efficiencies in FCR, if animal numbers remain the same the demand for animal protein may stabilise, in which case it would be important for the soybean industry to increase demand elsewhere. This additional demand could occur in exports of animal products. Currently this is the focus of the different Masterplans being discussed which, if successful, will play an important role in sustainability. However, the outcome and positive outlook is yet to be seen.
Another factor of importance is the price and competition for raw materials. To sustain the projected local consumption levels, raw material prices tend towards export parity. This implies that much work will be needed to increase the feasibility of producing the raw materials at these levels. Sensitivity is specifically related to the price of protein sources, one of these ratios being the maize to soybean price ratio.
Given the production of raw materials, the question is whether there will be opportunities in the future for exports. Some of the commodities can be exported but there may be better opportunities to export processed product.
The protein raw material basket is complex, and any change in price or availability of one raw material will affect the utilisation of oilcake, specifically soya oilcake. If the production or importation of an alternative protein source increases, this will have a direct impact on the consumption of soya oilcake.
Logistics and biosecurity will play an important role in the future. If inland products cannot be delivered price competitively to coastal consumers, imports will continue. If the exports of animal products do not increase, due, for example, to biosecurity lapses, there will be pressure on the utilisation of soybean oilcake in South Africa and this will have a direct impact on production.
If all of the above fall into place, South Africa could soon become totally self-sufficient in oilcake production (Table 8) and there may even be some space to increase soyabean production.
Table 8: Projected self-sufficiency of total oilcake and soya oilcake 2021 2024 2030 Total oilcake 73% 85% 99.7% Soya oilcake 66% 82% 100%
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