Statistics & Estimates / Protein Statistics / Protein Statistics 2016 September

Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated September 2016)

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Requirements / Sales 25 000 45 000 20 000 1 967 445 1 966 459 1 981 986
Available / Produced 65 000 85 000 78 000 969 100 1 170 699 1 229 277
Shortage / Imports -40 000 -40 000 -58 000 998 345 795 760 752 709

2015/2016 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
AFMA Members 19 770 23 185 23 185 1 272 823 1 343 025 1 385 703
Non-AFMA Members 5 230 21 815 21 815 694 622 624 420 596 283
Total 25 000 45 000 45 000 1 967 445 1 967 445 1 981 986

Source: AFMA website
2015/2016 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2013/2014   2014/2015   2015/2016  
Sunflower oilcake 290 032 4.70 294 583 4.58 308 633 4.30
Groundnut oilcake 1 759 0.03 1 917 0.03 573 0.01
Soya oilcake 814 604 13.19 821 670 12.78 936 283 13.03
Full fat soya 77 876 1.26 75 267 1.17 72 415 1.01
Cottonseed oilcake 17 539 0.28 20 892 0.32 8 888 0.12
Full fat cottonseed 9 436 0.15 10 340 0.16 7 845 0.11
Canola oilcake 14 847 0.24 23 555 0.37 38 109 0.53
Full fat canola 0 0.00 0 0.00 546 0.00
Copra and Palm kernel 27 969 0.45 23 231 0.36 11 568 0.16
Maize germ oilcake 425 0.00 1 368 0.02 843 0.01
Total oilcake 1 272 823 21.52 1 343 025 19.79 1 385 703 19.29
Total maize products 3 324 316 51.80 3 493 998 51.69 3 595 160 50.05
Total fishmeal 19 770 0.68 23 185 0.31 12 178 0.17
Feed 6 431 328   6 714 004   7 183 107  

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2015 to March 2016. Actual.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
PROJECT
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
RSA 70 000 65 000 85 000 64 600
Namibia ¹ 14 000 13 000 13 000 13 000
Total 84 000 78 000 98 000 77 600 0 0 0

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2015/2016 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2014/2015-2016/2017)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
(Projected)
2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
(Projected)
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 0 0 0 588 0 0
Sunflower oilcake 320 842 280 368 281 200 166 273 67 887 70 000
Soya cake 654 839 750 898 668 800 609 613 587 692 666 120
  – Full fat 118 598 121 763 105 000
Cotton cake 98 478 59 468 60 000
  – Full fat 8 740 19 098 19 098 11 749 12 949 12 000
Other:
Canola 53 680 51 150 51 000 0 0 0
Lupins 14 000 6 000 14 000 0 0 0
Copra and Palm kernel 57 035 24 713 30 000
Total 1 170 699 1 229 277 1 139 098 943 736 752 709 838 120

Source: SAGIS
2015/2016 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 30 August 2016.

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2012/2013-2016/2017 marketing season)
Crop 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
White maize 6 740 000 5 545 000 7 710 000 4 735 000 3 097 225
Yellow maize 5 090 000 6 145 000 6 540 000 5 220 000 4 063 700
Sorghum 135 500 147 200 265 000 120 500 88 500
Groundnuts 59 000 41 500 74 500 62 300 31 600
Sunflower 522 000 557 000 832 000 663 000 742 750
Soybeans 650 000 784 500 948 000 1 070 000 728 650
Cotton seed ¹ 22 326 26 300 8 740 19 098 19 098
Wheat 1 870 000 1 870 000 1 750 000 1 457 015 1 440 000
Canola 79 000 112 041 121 000 97 600 93 000

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth production forecast 2016 (26 May 2016) and winter final crop estimate for the 2015 marketing year (12 May 2016).
¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2016/2017 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Producer deliveries Exports Total supply
White Maize 1 144 545 1 250 000 2 990 675 480 000 4 905 220
Yellow maize 915 914 2 400 000 3 644 600 290 000 6 670 514
Sorghum 80 610 35 000 90 200 25 000 180 810
Groundnuts 13 300 0 31 600 16 000 28 900
Sunflower 45 872 66 000 710 500 100 822 272
Soybeans 88 925 250 000 659 750 4 500 994 175
Wheat 596 823 2 000 000 1 425 015 83 000 3 938 838
Canola 12 500 0 97 600 0 110 100

Source: Opening stock, import and export figures obtained from South African Supply and Demand.
Estimates Report, National Agricultural Marketing Council, 1 April 2016.

Table 8
Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2011/2012-2016/2017 production season)
  Ha Planted
Crop 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
White maize 1 636 200 1 617 200 1 551 200 1 448 050 1 421 800 1 014 750
Yellow maize 1 063 000 1 164 000 1 137 000 1 204 800 1 129 000 932 000
Sorghum 48 550 62 620 78 850 70 500 74 750 48 500
Groundnuts 45 450 46 900 52 125 58 000 44 700 22 600
Sunflower 453 350 504 700 598 950 576 000 614 000 718 500
Soybeans 472 000 516 500 502 900 687 300 696 400 502 800
Wheat 604 700 511 200 505 500 477 650 482 150 482 150
Canola 43 510 44 100 72 165 80 000 78 050 78 050
Total 4 366 760 4 467 220 4 498 690 4 602 300 4 540 850 4 799 350

Source: National Crops Estimates Committee – Second production forecast 2016 (26 May 2016). Area estimate to plant Winter crops 2015 production season (12 May 2016).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crops Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September