2018 ICB: Wheat, barley and canola dryland in Southern Cape (Bredasdor
2018 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Bredasdorp region)
Area Southern Cape: Bredasdorp
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 3.00 3.00 1.50 2.60 1.20
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2018 R/ton 3 813 3 813 4 613 2 900 3 250
Total deductions R/ton 726 709 4
– Transport differential R/ton 560 560
– Grade differential R/ton 60 96
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 107 53 4
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 75 461
Net farm gate price R/ton 3 087 3 084 5 070 2 900 3 250
Gross income R/ha R9 261 R9 252 R7 605 R7 540 R3 900

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 31 31 25 25 13
Fertilizer R/ha 1 931 1 843 2 004 1 318 959
Lime R/ha 68 68 68 68 68
Seed R/ha 599 519 1 046 411 717
Fuel R/ha 670 682 626 664 647
Herbicide R/ha 786 768 909 457 649
Insecticide R/ha 216 264 566 134 479
Fungicides R/ha 719 1 041 385 435 106
Marketing costs R/ha 37 47 13
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 652 657 649 687 682
Casual labour R/ha 13 13 13 13 13
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 106 108 101 91 91
Total variable expenditure R/ha R5 828 R6 042 R6 404 R4 302 R4 424
Total variable expenditure R/ton R1 943 R2 014 R4 269 R1 655 R3 687
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R3 433 R3 211 R1 201 R3 238 -R524
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R1 144 R1 070 R801 R1 245 -R437
Source: Overberg Agri, GSA and BFAP, April 2018.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Caledon region)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Bredasdorp region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Overberg, Bredasdorp

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R2 087 -1 132 -610 -89 433 955 1 477 1 998
R2 337 -570 15 599 1 183 1 767 2 352 2 936
R2 587 -7 640 1 286 1 933 2 580 3 227 3 873
R2 837 555 1 265 1 974 2 683 3 392 4 102 4 811
R3 087 1 118 1 890 2 661 3 433 4 205 4 977 5 748
R3 337 1 680 2 515 3 349 4 183 5 017 5 852 6 686
R3 587 2 243 3 140 4 036 4 933 5 830 6 727 7 623
R3 837 2 815 3 765 4 724 5 683 6 642 7 602 8 561
R4 087 3 368 4 390 5 411 6 433 7 455 8 477 9 498
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R2 084 -1 352 -831 -310 211 732 1 253 1 774
R2 334 -790 -206 377 961 1 544 2 128 2 711
R2 584 -227 419 1 065 1 711 2 357 3 003 3 649
R2 834 335 1 044 1 752 2 461 3 169 3 878 4 586
R3 084 898 1 669 2 440 3 211 3 982 4 753 5 524
R3 334 1 460 2 294 3 127 3 961 4 794 5 628 6 461
R3 584 2 023 2 919 3 815 4 711 5 607 6 503 7 399
R3 834 2 585 3 544 4 502 5 461 6 419 7 378 8 336
R4 084 3 148 4 169 5 190 6 211 7 232 8 253 9 274
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R4 070 -3 351 -2 334 -1 316 -299 719 1 736 2 754
R4 320 -3 164 -2 084 -1 004 76 1 156 2 236 3 316
R4 570 -2 976 -1 834 -691 451 1 594 2 736 3 879
R4 820 -2 789 -1 584 -379 826 2 031 3 236 4 441
R5 070 -2 601 -1 334 -66 1 201 2 469 3 736 5 004
R5 320 -2 414 -1 084 246 1 576 2 906 4 236 5 566
R5 570 -2 226 -834 559 1 951 3 344 4 736 6 129
R5 820 -2 039 -584 871 2 326 3 781 5 236 6 691
R6 070 -1 851 -334 1 184 2 701 4 219 5 736 7 254
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R4 320 R4 570 R4 820 R5 070 R5 320 R5 570 R5 820
0.50 -7 677 -7 552 -7 427 -7 302 -7 177 -7 052 -6 927
0.75 -6 597 -6 409 -6 222 -6 034 -5 847 -5 659 -5 472
1.00 -5 517 -5 267 -5 017 -4 767 -4 517 -4 267 -4 017
1.25 -4 437 -4 124 -3 812 -3 499 -3 187 -2 874 -2 562
1.50 -3 357 -2 982 -2 607 -2 232 -1 857 -1 482 -1 107
1.75 -2 277 -1 839 -1 402 -964 -527 -89 348
2.00 -1 197 -697 -197 303 803 1 303 1 803
2.25 -117 446 1 008 1 571 2 133 2 696 3 258
2.50 963 1 588 2 213 2 838 3 463 4 088 4 713

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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