Statistics & Estimates / Protein Statistics / Protein Statistics 2016 March

Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fish meal and oilcake
(updated March 2016)

Table 1
Fish Meal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Fish Meal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Requirements / Sales 25 000 45 000 20 000 1 967 445 1 966 459 2 025 768
Available / Produced 65 000 85 000 78 000 969 100 1 179 939 1 233 608
Shortage / Imports -40 000 -40 000 -58 000 998 345 786 520 792 160

2015/2016 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2
Fish Meal and Oilcake usage   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Fish Meal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
AFMA Members 41 875 19 770 23 185 1 254 487 1 272 823 1 387 614
Non-AFMA Members (16 875) 25 230 21 815 712 958 694 622 638 154
Total 25 000 45 000 45 000 1 967 445 1 967 445 2 025 768

Source: AFMA website
2015/2016 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2013/2014   2014/2015   2015/2016  
Sunflower oilcake 290 032 4.70 294 583 4.58 303 033 4.33
Groundnut oilcake 1 759 0.03 1 917 0.03 739 0.01
Soya oilcake 814 604 13.19 821 670 12.78 941 455 13.45
Full fat soya 77 876 1.26 75 267 1.17 77 115 1.10
Cottonseed oilcake 17 539 0.28 20 892 0.32 10 486 0.15
Full fat cottonseed 9 436 0.15 10 340 0.16 7 622 0.11
Canola oilcake 14 847 0.24 23 555 0.37 33 155 0.47
Full fat canola 0 0.00 0 0.00 261 0.00
Copra and Palm kernel 27 969 0.45 23 231 0.36 12 645 0.18
Maize germ oilcake 425 0.00 1 368 0.02 1 103 0.02
Total oilcake 1 254 487 21.52 1 272 823 19.79 1 387 614 19.83
Total maize products 3 199 641 51.80 3 324 316 51.69 3 622 845 51.77
Total fish meal 41 875 0.68 19 770 0.31 12 807 0.18
Feed 6 176 151   6 397 563   6 997 698  

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2015 to November 2015. Actual.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fish Meal: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fish Meal production (ton) Imported Fish Meal (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
PROJECT
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
RSA 70 000 65 000 85 000 78 000      
Namibia ¹ 14 000 13 000 13 000 1 000      
Total 84 000 13 000 98 000 79 200 -40 000 -40 000 -58 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2015/2016 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2014/2015-2016/2017)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
Oilcake:            
Groundnuts oilcake 0 0 0 588 0 0
Sunflower oilcake 320 842 281 200 281 200 166 273 62 693 160 000
Soya cake 654 839 760 000 570 000 609 613 488 833 730 000
  – Full fat 118 598 116 560 116 560      
Cotton cake       127 604 110 272 121 082
  – Full fat 8 740 19 098 19 098 37 232 37 000 37 000
Other:            
Canola 62 920 50 750 50 750 0 24 713 0
Lupins 14 000 6 000 6 000 0 0 0
Copra and Palm kernel       57 035 24 713 30 000
Total 1 179 939 1 233 608 1 043 608 998 345 848 224 1 078 082

Source: SAGIS
2015/2016 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 27 November 2015

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2012/2013-2016/2017 marketing season)
Crop 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
White maize 6 740 000 5 545 000 7 710 000 4 735 000 3 195 800
Yellow maize 5 090 000 6 145 000 6 540 000 5 220 000 4 049 950
Sorghum 135 500 147 200 265 000 120 500 93 400
Groundnuts 59 000 41 500 74 500 62 300 34 120
Sunflower 522 000 557 000 832 000 663 000 687 150
Soybeans 650 000 784 500 948 000 1 070 000 724 600
Cotton seed ¹ 22 326 26 300 8 740 19 098 19 098
Wheat 1 870 000 1 870 000 1 750 000 1 457 015 1 457 015
Canola 79 000 112 041 121 000 97 600 97 600

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Second production forecast 2016 and final winter crop estimate for the 2015/2016 marketing year (25 February 2016).
¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2016/2017 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Producer deliveries Exports Total supply
White Maize 1 124 545 1 150 000 3 115 800 480 000 4 910 345
Yellow maize 576 414 2 750 000 3 709 950 330 000 6 706 364
Sorghum 80 252 40 000 90 900 29 000 182 152
Groundnuts 13 300 0 34 120 16 000 31 420
Sunflower 44 207 90 000 687 150 100 821 257
Soybeans 83 254 200 000 692 600 4 500 971 354
Wheat 596 823 2 000 000 1 425 015 118 000 3 903 838
Canola 12 500 0 97 600 0 110 100

Source: Opening stock, import and export figures obtained from South African Supply and Demand.
Estimates Report, National Agricultural Marketing Council, 28 August 2015.

Table 8
Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2011/2012-2016/2017 production season)
  Ha Planted
Crop 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
White maize 1 636 200 1 617 000 1 551 200 1 448 050 1 421 800 1 020 750
Yellow maize 1 063 000 1 164 000 1 137 000 1 204 800 1 129 000 945 000
Sorghum 48 550 62 620 78 850 70 500 74 750 48 500
Groundnuts 45 450 46 900 52 125 58 000 44 700 23 100
Sunflower 453 350 504 700 598 950 576 000 614 000 687 500
Soybeans 472 000 516 500 502 900 687 300 696 400 519 800
Wheat 604 700 511 200 505 500 477 650 482 150 482 150
Canola 43 510 44 100 72 165 80 000 78 050 78 050
Total 4 366 760 4 467 220 4 498 690 4 602 300 4 540 850 4 804 850

Source: National Crops Estimates Committee – Second production forecast 2016.
Area estimate to plant Winter crops 2015 production season (7 February 2016).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crops Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September