Statistics & Estimates / Crop Estimates / 26 October 2016

Intentions to plant summer crops 2017
Area planted and third production forecast of winter crops 2016

Summer crops / Somergewasse
Intentions to plant  2017  Voorneme om te plant
Crop / Gewas Intentions
Voorneme
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final estimate
Finale skatting
Change
Verandering
2017
as mid October 2016
soos middel October 2016
2016 2016
as on / soos op
27 September 2016
Ha Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (A) ÷ (B)
Commercial / Kommersieël
  White Maize / Witmielies 1 455 000 1 014 750 3 253 775 +43.4
  Yellow Maize / Geelmielies 1 008 000 932 000 4 283 100 +8.2
Maize / Mielies 2 463 000 1 946 750 7 536 875 +26.5
Sunflower Seed / Sonneblomsaad 670 000 718 500 755 000 -6.8
Soybeans / Sojabone 516 000 502 800 741 550 +2.6
Groundnuts / Grondbone 33 500 22 600 18 850 +48.2
Sorghum 38 300 48 500 74 150 -21.0
Dry Beans / Droëbone 33 000 34 400 35 445 -4.1
Total / Totaal 3 753 800 3 273 550 9 161 870 +14.7
NOTE:  Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2016/17 = 2017
NOTA:  Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2016/17 = 2017

White maize / Witmielies
Area planted   2010-2017   Oppervlakte beplant

Graph of white maize area planted 2010-2017

Yellow maize / Geelmielies
Area planted   2010-2017   Oppervlakte beplant

Graph of yellow maize area planted 2010-2017

Total Maize / Totale Mielies
Area planted   2010-2017   Oppervlakte beplant

Graph of total maize area planted 2010-2017
White and Yellow maize / Wit- en Geelmielies
Intentions to plant  2017  Voorneme om te plant
Intentions (area planted) / Voorneme (oppervlakte beplant) Area planted / Oppervlakte beplant Final estimate ¹ / Finale skatting ¹
2017 2016 2016
White / Wit Yellow / Geel Total / Totaal White / Wit Yellow / Geel Total / Totaal White / Wit Yellow / Geel Total / Totaal
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Tons Tons Tons
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap
0 2 000 2 000 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 40 000 45 000
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap
3 000 45 000 48 000 3 750 50 000 53 750 34 875 675 000 709 875
Free State / Vrystaat
665 000 385 000 1 050 000 390 000 310 000 700 000 1 111 500 1 007 500 2 119 000
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap
2 000 12 000 14 000 2 000 12 000 14 000 9 200 66 000 75 200
KwaZulu-Natal
45 000 50 000 95 000 38 000 48 000 86 000 209 000 304 800 513 800
Mpumalanga
165 000 332 000 497 000 160 000 330 000 490 000 720 000 1 551 000 2 271 000
Limpopo
34 000 22 000 56 000 31 500 22 000 53 500 176 400 129 800 306 200
Gauteng
51 000 55 000 106 000 49 000 56 000 105 000 205 800 224 000 429 800
North West / Noordwes
490 000 105 000 595 000 340 000 100 000 440 000 782 000 285 000 1 067 000
Total / Totaal
1 455 000 1 008 000 2 463 000 1 014 750 932 000 1 946 750 3 253 775 4 283 100 7 536 875
¹  27 September 2016


CONFIDENTIALITY ISSUES that CEC members are committed to adhere to on the day of the meeting

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  • Only the Chairperson, or a member appointed by the Chairperson, may release the figures to the media.
  • Members must regard the detail of any information that was collected for and/or discussed during the meeting, as confidential.
  • Individual information received for crop estimate purposes is treated strictly confidential, and is not divulged for any other purposes.

Summer crops / Somergewasse
Intentions to plant  26 October/Oktober 2016  Voorneme om te plant

Producers intentions to plant summer crops are based on the results of a nonprobability survey conducted by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agricul­ture, Forestry and Fisheries and reflects the position as at the middle of October 2016.

According to the results of the survey, commercial producers intend to plant 2,463 million ha of maize for 2017, which is 26,5% or 516 250 ha more than the 1,947 million ha planted last season.

The figures show that producers intend to plant 1,455 million ha to white maize, which is 440 250 ha (43,4%) more than in the pre­vious season. In the case of yellow maize, the expected plantings are 1,008 million ha, which is 76 000 ha (8,2%) more than in the previous season.

Producers indicated that more maize will be planted for the 2017 season, mainly because of favourable weather forecasts for the new season, which will hopefully bring relief after the previous seasons' drought conditions. However, the rainfall can still in­fluence farmers' decisions.

In the case of sunflower seed, the expected area planted is estimated at 670 000 ha, which is 6,8% or 48 500 ha less than the 718 500 ha planted last season.

The intended plantings of soybeans shows an increase of 2,6% compared to the previous season – from 502 800 ha to 516 000 ha.

The expected plantings of groundnuts will increase by 48,2%, from 22 600 ha to 33 500 ha.

The intended plantings of sorghum is expected to decrease by 21,0% or 10 200 ha to 38 300 ha, compared to the previous season.

The expected plantings of dry beans is estimated at 33 000 ha, which is 4,1% or 1 400 ha less than in the previous season.


Please note that the preliminary area planted estimate for summer grains for 2017 will be released on 26 January 2017.

Information is available on the internet at:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates or:
www.sagis.org.za, as from 14:30 on the date of the relevant meeting of the Crop Estimates Committee.

Produsente se voorneme om somergewasse te plant is gebaseer op die resultate van 'n nie-ewekansige opname onderneem deur die Direktoraat: Statistiek en Ekonomiese Analise van die Depar­te­ment van Landbou, Bosbou en Visserye en weerspieël die situasie teen die middel van Oktober 2016.

Volgens die resultate van die opname, is kommersiele produsente van voorneme om 2,463 miljoen ha mielies vir 2017 te plant, wat 26,5% of 516 250 ha meer is as die 1,947 miljoen ha aangeplant verlede seisoen.

Die syfers toon dat produsente van voorneme is om 1,455 miljoen ha witmielies aan te plant, wat 440 250 ha (43,4%) meer is as in die vorige seisoen. In die geval met geelmielies is die verwagte aanplantings 1,008 miljoen ha, wat 76 000 ha (8,2%) meer is as in die vorige seisoen.

Produsente het aangedui dat meer mielies aangeplant sal word vir die 2017-seisoen, hoofsaaklik as gevolg van gunstige weer­voor­uitsigte vir die nuwe seisoen, wat hopelik verligting sal bring na die vorige seisoen se droogtetoestande. Maar reënval kan steeds boere se besluite beïnvloed.

In die geval van sonneblomsaad word die verwagte aanplantings beraam op 670 000 ha, wat 6,8% of 48 500 ha minder is as die 718 500 ha aangeplant verlede seisoen.

Die voorgenome sojaboon-aanplantings toon 'n toename van 2,6% in vergelyking met die vorige seisoen – vanaf 502 800 ha tot 516 000 ha.

Die verwagte aanplantings van grondbone gaan toeneem met 48,2%, van 22 600 ha tot 33 500 ha.

Die voorgenome aanplantings van sorghum sal na verwagting afneem met 21,0% of 10 200 ha na 38 300 ha, in vergelyking met die vorige seisoen.

Die verwagte aanplantings van droëbone word beraam op 33 000 ha, wat 4,1% of 1 400 ha minder is as in die vorige seisoen.


Neem asseblief kennis dat die voorlopige oppervlakteskatting vir somergewasse vir 2017 op 26 Januarie 2017 vrygestel sal word.

Inligting is beskikbaar op die internet by:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates of by:
www.sagis.org.za, vanaf 14:30 op die dag van die toepaslike vergadering van die Oesskattingskomitee.


Winter cereals / Wintergewasse
Area planted and third production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en derde produksieskatting
Crop / Gewas Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Third forecast
Derde skatting
Second forecast
Tweede skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Change
Verandering
2016 2016 2016 2015 2015
Ha Tons Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (B) ÷ (C)
Commercial / Kommersieël
  Wheat / Koring 508 365 1 733 980 1 700 390 482 150 1 440 000 +2.0
  Malting barley / Moutgars 88 695 299 895 291 595 93 730 332 000 +2.8
Canola 68 075 108 860 102 060 78 050 93 000 +6.7
Total / Totaal 665 135 2 142 735 2 094 045 653 930 1 865 000 +2.3

Note:  Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2016/17 = 2016
Nota:  Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2016/17 = 2016

Wheat / Koring
Area planted and third production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en derde produksieskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Third forecast
Derde skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
2016 2016 2015 2015
Ha Tons Ha Tons
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap 323 000 936 700 310 000 697 500
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 35 000 252 000 36 000 259 200
Free State / Vrystaat 110 000 308 000 80 000 176 500
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap 2 200 11 440 3 100 14 880
KwaZulu-Natal 6 500 37 050 7 300 41 000
Mpumalanga 2 300 13 800 3 500 19 500
Limpopo 17 000 102 000 27 000 144 420
Gauteng 365 2 190 250 1 500
North West / Noordwes 12 000 70 800 15 000 85 500
Total / Totaal 508 365 1 733 980 482 150 1 440 000

Wheat / Koring
Production for Western Cape   2010-2016   Wes-Kaap produksie

Graph showing wheat production from 2010 to 2016 in the Western Cape, South Africa

Wheat / Koring
Production for Northern Cape   2010-2016   Noord-Kaap produksie

Graph showing production of wheat in Northern Cape, South Africa from 2010 to 2016

Wheat / Koring
Production for Free State   2010-2016   Vrystaat produksie

Graph showing yield of wheat in the Free State, South Africa, from 2010 to 2016

Winter cereal crops / Wintergewasse
Area estimate and third production forecast  26 October/Oktober 2016  Oppervlakte- en derde produksieskatting

Winter cereal crops – 2016

Please note that the yield for the Western Cape is mainly based on information as collected objectively by the National Crop Statis­tics Consortium (NCSC), which is led by the ARC. Information on the objective yield for the Free State will be available on 20 De­cem­ber 2016.

Wheat

The expected commercial production of wheat is 1,734 million tons, which is 2,0% or 33 590 tons more than the previous fore­cast of 1,700 million tons, whilst the expected yield is 3,41 t/ha.

The expected production in the Western Cape is 936 700 tons (54%), in the Free State 308 000 tons (18%) and in the Northern Cape 252 000 tons (15%).

The area estimate for wheat was revised to 508 365 ha, which is 215 ha more than the 508 150 ha of the previous forecast. This was mainly as a result of information that was received by the Consortium on the area planted for the Gauteng province.

Other crops: The production forecast for malting barley is 299 895 tons, which is 2,8% more than the previous forecast of 291 595 tons. The area planted is estimated at 88 695 ha, while the ex­pect­ed yield is 3,38 t/ha.

The expected canola crop was adjusted upwards by 6 800 tons to 108 860 tons. The area estimate for canola is 68 075 ha, with an expected yield of 1,60 t/ha.


Please note that the fourth production forecast for winter cereals for 2016 will be released on 24 November 2016.

Information is available on the internet at:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates or:
www.sagis.org.za, as from 14:30 on the date of the relevant meeting of the Crop Estimates Committee.

Wintergewasse – 2016

Let wel, die opbrengs vir die Wes-Kaap is hoofsaaklik gebaseer op inligting soos objektief versamel deur die LNR-begeleide Nasio­nale Oesskattingskonsortium. Inligting oor die objektiewe op­brengs vir die Vrystaat sal op 20 Desember 2016 beskikbaar wees.

Koring

Die verwagte kommersiële produksie vir koring is 1,734 miljoen ton, wat 2,0% of 33 590 ton meer is as die vorige skatting van 1,700 miljoen ton, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 3,41 t/ha is.

Die verwagte produksie in die Wes-Kaap is 936 700 ton (54%), in die Vrystaat 308 000 ton (18%) en in die Noord-Kaap 252 000 ton (15%).

Die oppervlakteskatting vir koring is hersien na 508 365 ha, wat 215 ha meer is as die 508 150 ha teenoor die vorige skatting. Dit is hoofsaaklik as gevolg van inligting wat ontvang is vanaf die Konsortium ten opsigte van die oppervlakte beplant vir die Gauteng provinsie.

Ander gewasse: Die produksieskatting vir moutgars is 299 895 ton, wat 2,8% meer is as die vorige skatting van 291 595 ton. Die oppervlakte beplant is beraam op 88 695 ha, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 3,38 t/ha beloop.

Die verwagte canola-oes is opwaarts aangepas met 6 800 ton na 108 860 ton. Die oppervlakteskatting vir canola is 68 075 ha, met ʼn verwagte opbrengs van 1,60 t/ha.


Neem asseblief kennis dat die vierde produksieskatting vir wintergewasse vir 2016 op 24 November 2016 vrygestel sal word.

Inligting is beskikbaar op die internet by:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates of by:
www.sagis.org.za, vanaf 14:30 op die dag van die toepaslike vergadering van die Oesskattingskomitee.